Professor Thomas J. Espenshade
208 Notestein Hall
21 Prospect Avenue (old Cannon Club)
Office Hours:
Thursday, 2:45-4:15 p.m. or by appointment
Tel. 258-5233
Preceptor: Elizabeth Pettit
301 Notestein Hall, 21 Prospect Avenue
Office Hours:
TBA or by appointment
Tel. 258-4945
This course provides an overview of U.S. and world demographic situations, introduces methods of demographic analysis, and surveys social science perspectives on population problems. The goal of the course is to help students become more sophisticated consumers of demographic information and more critical analysts of population problems. General topics covered include the determinants and consequences of population change in developed and developing countries, and the influence of social and economic factors on mortality, fertility, marriage and divorce, and international migration. The latter part of the course is devoted to specific topics of public policy importance such as demographic aspects of AIDS, population and the environment, population aging, workforce implications of our changing population, contemporary U.S. immigration, and poverty among children.
Readings for the course consist of a textbook supplemented by additional material from books and journals. The text we will use is: Richard T. Gill, Nathan Glazer, and Stephan A. Thernstrom. 1992. Our Changing Population. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall. A copy may be purchased at the University Store, and additional copies will be on reserve at Firestone Library. Copies of the additional required readings may be purchased through Pequod Copy Center (located at 6 Nassau Street). These readings are also on reserve at the Office of Population Research Library in the basement of Notestein Hall (Cannon Club). During the term, library hours are from 9 a.m.-5 p.m., Monday through Friday, and from 9 a.m.-1 p.m. on Saturdays.
There will be two lectures and one precept each week. Three precept times have been scheduled. Course requirements include a mid-term examination (20 percent of the final grade), a final exam (30 percent), and a paper (30 percent). Precept participation and problem sets comprise the remaining 20 percent. For the term paper, you will be expected to pick a developing country for which reasonably good data exist and prepare a population projection(s) for that country, using a date near 1990 as the baseline and going out 25-50 years into the future. You may use any method of population projection you deem appropriate, but a disk-copy of a cohort-component methodology will be available for your use. You must defend your assumptions about fertility, mortality, and migration on the basis of historical trends, theory, and the like. The last part of your paper should be devoted to an analysis of your projection for a particular sector in the country (e.g. education, health, labor force, environment, etc.). You may work by yourself on the paper or in a small group (no more than 4 or, in rare circumstances, 5 to a group), but you are strongly encouraged to work in groups. Each member of a group will receive the same grade for the term paper. The maximum length of the paper will depend upon group size: 15 pages of double-spaced text (excluding tables, figures, references, etc.) for one person, 25 pages for groups of two or three, and 30 pages maximum for four or five people. Final written versions of your term papers are due by 5 p.m. on the last day of reading period: Tuesday, January 16. Term papers should be turned in to Professor Espenshade's secretary, Melanie Adams, at the Office of Population Research.
Three problem sets will cover methods of demographic analysis. These will be graded and will form part of the grade for precept participation. Precepts are intended to review problem sets and discuss the readings and lectures, and will be conducted by the professor and Elizabeth Pettit, a graduate student in the Sociology Department who is concentrating in Demography. Some precepts will be devoted to discussion of specific articles or topics not covered in detail in lecture. Students are expected to complete relevant readings before these precepts and to come prepared for discussion.